
UniCredit Group − Disappointment. The unexpected setback in the purchasing managers indices has dampened hopes of a rapid trend reversal for the euro−zone economy. The miserable state of the economy at the end of the year will continue in the first quarter. GDP will contract strongly again at the beginning of the year.Hope. In contrast, the second consecutive strong gain in the Ifo expectations component this week has underpinned hopes of an improvement after mid−year. Ifo expectations are the most reliable leading indicator for German industrial production. We see the trend reversal here in spring.
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